It may sound bizarre now, but only a few weeks ago, many political analysts were convinced that Nigel Farage’s opposition to net zero would cost him lots of votes. One polling expert even declared that it could be Reform’s Achilles’ heel.
Frankly, that strikes me as a touch improbable. In reality, I suspect the opposite is true: Mr Farage speaks for voters on net zero. And here’s how we know.
This week, a new polling firm called Merlin Strategy asked voters for their views on tackling climate change. But here’s the crucial thing, it didn’t merely ask them: “Do you support net zero?” Instead, it asked them which was more important: action to achieve net zero, or cutting the cost of living. And guess what they said? Almost 60 per cent chose cutting the cost of living, while a mere 13 per cent chose net zero.
A telling outcome. Asked, in isolation, whether they back urgent action on climate change, voters may say yes. When they’re asked whether they would prioritise it over their own personal finances, however, it’s a different story.
There’s more to it than that, though. In my view, this result doesn’t just show that the overwhelming majority of people think the cost of living is more pressing than net zero. It shows that they don’t really believe in net zero full stop.
After all, if they did genuinely believe in it, they would prioritise it ahead of literally any other issue. Because they’d be shrieking: “Never mind about the price of the weekly shop! Or the economy, NHS, crime, schools or potholes! We absolutely have to put net zero first – otherwise we’ll soon be facing climate catastrophe, the collapse of civilisation, and the end of life on Earth as we know it! And then it won’t matter how expensive our grocery bills are – because we’ll all be dead!”
Evidently, however, most voters hold no such fears. So next time Ed Miliband claims that the public supports net zero, perhaps someone could politely explain this to him.
In a way, the situation reminds me of Labour during the Jeremy Corbyn years. Mr Corbyn’s fans used to get terribly excited because, in isolation, his policies actually tended to poll very well. When it came to the crunch, however, most voters clearly decided they had greater priorities. At the election of 2019, for example, they proved to be rather more interested in getting Brexit done than in, say, nationalising broadband, or free bus travel for the under-25s.
This is why politicians have to be wary when trying to find out what voters want. It all depends on how you ask.
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